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Prediction for CME (2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-13T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28127/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen directed towards the NW in all coronagraphs. Source is a C2.8 flare from AR 3514 which peaked at 2023-12-12T22:55Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131, and an associated dimming region starting at 2023-12-12T22:30Z best observed in SDO AIA 193/211. The dimming regions spans approximately W12->W26 and N11->S10, with the most dimming occurring centered around N06W19. A double ribbon flare/surface brightening is observed in this same region in SDO AIA 304, along with a small post-eruptive arcade that begins at the same time as the eruption. Clear arrival signature: A clear shock signature with a sharp increase in B total to initially 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T15:49Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-13 04:39
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-13 00:00
 - Radial speed: 696.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N02W17
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 614.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-12-15 15:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.82 hours)
Lead Time: 32.87 hour(s)
Difference: -4.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-12-14T02:05Z
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